Political Strategy: The Bihar Elections

      Election time in India is the time when everyone starts coming up with theories and opinions of their own. No. Actually, election time in India is the time when various opinions, which are formed in the pre-election season, reach their destination, of whether the opinions formed stand correct or not. It’s like how a lottery ticket works. You buy a lottery ticket, and then go hang it around in the temple of your God, waiting for the almighty and luck to combine their forces and make you victorious on the result day. Similarly, opinions formed in the pre-election period are formed, discussed and then kept bhagwaan-bharose to see whether they stand correct or no. Amidst various opinions which are being formed and kept bhagwaan-bharose around the Bihar Elections, I too have tried to form my opinion on how Bihar Election can be a major step towards Congress Mukt Bharat. Let me state my opinion first, and then try to explain it.

My take: Just like Delhi, BJP here in Bihar, doesn’t seem to be keen on winning the elections. They wouldn’t mind losing any state, as long as they keep Congress out of that particular state, and the winning regional party supports the BJP government in the Rajya Sabha, where they are in minority.  

Explanation: With 2014 General elections safely in their bag, BJP started to look at a bigger picture. Though they have a comfortable majority in Lok Sabha, BJP didn’t have (still doesn’t) a majority in the Rajya Sabha. As all the bills passed by the Lok Sabha are forwarded to the Rajya Sabha, it is important for them to have a majority in the Rajya Sabha as well, so that their functioning becomes smooth. For this, they now had to win states. And, with their aim of winning states, they merged the picture of Congress Mukt Bharat. Having packed Congress off with 44 seats in the general elections, their next target was to pack them off from all their ruling states, and not give them a chance to even fight in the states where they are not the ruling party. So they started their campaign with Maharashtra and Haryana. Both these states were ruled by Congress. BJP campaigned aggressively. The Prime Minister too campaigned aggressively.  BJP won both the states, while Congress lost both the states. Then it was time for Jammu and Kashmir and Jharkhand. J&K had a combined government of the National Conference and Congress whereas Jharkhand had never seen a Congress government. BJP won quite a good number of seats in J&K, and formed a government in alliance with PDP. In Jharkhand, BJP again won a majority. By winning these states, BJP started progressing towards their dream of a Rajya Sabha majority and Congress Mukt Bharat.  
      A great philosopher in our time had once said, “When everything seems to work well, there is something which is not working well somewhere, but is not visible with the naked eye.” That is what happened. For us, everything was working well with the BJP. Running high on the winning opium, BJP now had the Delhi election to fight. Unlike 2013, this time their major opposition was the Aam Aadmi Party, and not the Congress. One thought that BJP will go all guns blazing behind AAP to win Delhi. But No. Surprisingly, the entire BJP campaign for Delhi elections looked like a Fuski bomb. BJP looked like a bunch of final year Mass Media students who thought of themselves as too elite to study for exams. Unlike their campaign in previous states, they even appointed their Chief Ministerial candidate (Kiran Bedi), so as to fight this election under her leadership, and not under Modi’s. Prime Minister, himself, took little interest in campaigning. The stage was all set for BJP to lose, and lose, they did! Everyone thought that the BJP would be very disappointed. But in my personal opinion, BJP wasn't at all disappointed. There are two reasons for this. Firstly, compared to other states, Delhi attracts Media the most because it is the Media capital of the country, so any small ‘idhar ka udhar’ will bring the government under attack, and secondly, BJP lost to AAP and not Congress, who got zero seats in Delhi. So in all, their mission of Congress Mukt Bharat did not stop, and it actually got more fuel. 
      My mind smells a similar Delhi-like BJP attitude in Bihar too. The recently merged Janata Parivar of political heavyweights has already started its campaign under Nitish Kumar, whereas BJP is nowhere in the scene. It is still fighting with its allies on several issues. On the other hand, the main BJP leadership is busy coping up with few major issues in form of Lalit Gate and Vyapam scam. And again like Delhi, Bihar is a fight between BJP and Janata Parivar, and Congress is out of the game. So I guess Modi and BJP might not even care much to campaign here in Bihar though it is termed as a big Modi vs Nitish fight. After all, they won't lose much if they lose Bihar.  Congress Mukt Bharat is anyway happening, and burden of governing one more state won't be there.
      As I mentioned earlier, Rajya Sabha is an important aspect for BJP. Winning states helps them get Rajya Sabha seats. So what if they lose Delhi and Bihar? They won’t get Rajya Sabha seats. But it doesn't matter if the winning party is willing to lend them support in Rajya Sabha. It’s like being back in school. You take cake in your tiffin box one day, and your greedy classmates will ask for a bite. You agree to give them all a bite each but on one condition that whenever they bring a cake to school in future, they will have to give you a bite too. There is only one difference. In school you could get away by not fulfilling the promise but in Politics, you cannot. The cake will come to haunt you someday or the other, with more icing on it. 
      So take this simple equation: BJP agrees to give AAP Delhi, in return for its support in Rajya Sabha to pass key bills. Though AAP is not a part of RS, it soon will be.  Similarly, BJP asks for Janata Parivar’s support in Rajya Sabha and in return the Parivar asks them to back out of Bihar. Possible? Why not? 
      Next Year we will have the West Bengal elections and the Tamil Nadu elections. A year later we will have elections in UP. All these three states have a strong regional party ruling the state and BJP won’t mind them winning, and take their support in the Rajya Sabha. Currently the BJP led NDA’s strength in RS is 64 seats out of 245 seats. Congress led UPA is at 70 seats. The Janata Parivar stands at 30 seats, TMC has 12 and AIADMK has 11. When you add these three with the NDA tally, the number comes up to 117, which is quite close to the half-way mark. A few nods from the other independent members, and the government will sail through easily in the Rajya Sabha too.
      Makes Sense now?
      In conclusion, I would like to say that even though I am serious about my calculations and opinions, they are not to be taken seriously. It’s just a mere opinion of a 19-year-old guy, who sees politics everywhere; even in the college washroom when a random guy uses the fifth urinal from the left instead of the third one from the right even though it’s empty (Jokes). On a serious note, I am keeping this opinion piece bhagwaan-bharose, so that even if a part of this is proved correct, it will encourage me to opine more in future. So let’s wait for the Bihar elections, and see how it turns out to be. If I am right, the cake is on me and if I am wrong, the cake will still be on me.